Re: Playing for a Specific Outcome Article (Question for Ed)
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Ed,
I'd win $60 to $80 extra if I checked. If he had exactly an ace, I stood to make possibly $820 to $840 extra by betting.
You are talking about a $250ish pot here, right? And you're saying a $900 bet into that pot is significantly more likely to be called than a checkraise all-in. I don't really understand what type of hand ranges you're talking about here. You mention a flush draw as one hand that might call the $900 bet. So, you're saying that a guy is maybe gonna call a $900 bet into a $250 pot w/ a flush draw (or just an Ace as you mention above), but he is going to fold if you checkraise? This doesn't make sense to me. I suspect I might be overlooking something simple here, because the premise as described doesn't make logical sense to me.
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I forced the example a bit. I wish I'd used a different example to make the point.
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