Thread: KK preflop
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Old 05-30-2005, 12:50 PM
n1bd n1bd is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: KK preflop

I'm with you emil, a push is looking questionable here. (Is this 10-handed or 6- or...?)

The big thing that bothers me is MP's 3% PFR. If he raises only AA-JJ/AK, that is almost exactly 3%, so that's the sort of hand range you're looking at. If the CO is paying attention to the 3% and is reraising on values, then his hand should already be somewhere around AA-KK *when he makes it 90*, not just when he calls your push. I don't know how MP responds to a reraise and how he plays post-flop, so it could be that the CO is profitably semi-bluffing with position with AK or even 33. Maybe CO is plain unobservant.

You have put them in the general category of truthsayers (one is ABC passive, the other is tight), though, and the CO is "solid" and therefore probably observant, and they have both shown a lot of strength, so I think the chance that one or the other of them has AA is decent. The chance of running into AA is probably too high to be risking ~500 at 18% equity (you lose ~290 when called given the dead money) to take down ~130. (If you will sometimes get a push called by QQ or AK, then things are rosier, but that would be a pretty dodgy call given this action and MP's passive nature.) There has to be no AA something like 70% of the time for an all in to be profitable. MP has AA 22% of the time *by himself* if he only raises AA-JJ/AK and two Ks are gone. The CO has to be reraising MP's premium hands with pure air (like 33) a lot of the time to have AA less than 8%.

I think the best line is a flat call preflop, especially if you have a good idea of how MP will respond to the reraise. If he will reraise all in with exactly AA-KK, then you are in information heaven. Similarly, if he will fold anything less than KK, information heaven. If he will often push with AK/QQ, then you are no longer in information heaven, but your average equity when called has just jumped considerably, so you can make an easy call rather than a tough fold. If he will just call the reraise with QQ/JJ (AK?) and will play predictably post-flop, then you can even start getting away from MP's sets by weak leading when a Q or J flops and evaluating the action.

Then, if the coast is clear, as in MP didn't go apeshit preflop or after hitting a set, you can play ball with the CO. Check-raise him all in or bet out if he doesn't usually make continuation bets when he whiffs (you also obviously can't CR in the weak lead set detection line). Earlier I said the CO's hand "should already be somewhere around AA-KK *when he makes it 90*," but that was assuming he was privy to MP's PFR and that the CO wasn't making a "play." Once you have eliminated the risk of MP, I think there is enough of chance CO is oblivious or making a play to make a push profitable on a non-A flop.

If you are going to flat call preflop with KK most/all of the time, then you should also usually flat call with AA in this situation. (I'm assuming that there is no hand other than AA/KK that you would limp-cold call 90 with in this situation.)
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