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Old 09-25-2005, 08:40 PM
Nightwish Nightwish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 182
Default Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.

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I'm slightly confused by your implied odds statement. True you're putting in 1bb as opposed to 1sb, but so is the rest of the field. So...


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For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that all you care about is hitting a flush. (Obviously, you may also win by hitting an A or two pair or whatever, but I'm just trying to make this simple to illustrate what I'm saying.)

If the flush is all you care about, you need approximately 15:1 to make your preflop call correct. So let's consider the two situations (raised vs unraised) separately.

Raised
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Making the liberal assumption that SB, BB, and UTG will all call and no one will 3-bet, you're getting 6:1 immediate odds. Clearly, there is a deficiency between the odds you're getting right now (6:1) and the odds you should be getting (15:1) to make your call correct. This means that if you call, you're telling me that you'll be able to win another 9 BB from postflop action those times that you actually make the flush. I emphasize postflop because you cannot double-count the preflop action.

Unraised
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If we once again assume that SB will call and neither he nor the BB will raise, you're getting the same 6:1, but now you only need to make another 9 SB postflop to make up for the deficiency between the immediate odds and the odds you should be getting.

What I described above is what people refer to as "implied odds."

Now tell me, which one do you think is easier to make up for postflop, a 9 BB deficiency or a 9 SB deficiency? And do you think you'll be able to make another 9 BB those times that you actually hit your flush?

I could also have made the same point by just exaggerating the preflop scenario. That is, assume that it's capped by the time it gets to you and some magic oracle is telling you that the same 6 opponents will see the flop together with you. Would you call 4 SBs cold with your A2s? If so, you're saying that now you'll be able to make another 18 BB from postflop action if you hit your flush. And so on....
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