Thread: interest rates
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Old 11-20-2001, 04:11 AM
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Default Re: interest rates



Fed has no other tools at its disposal, what do you expect them to do, raise rates? The can increase the liquidity of the market all they want, that only causes a temporary spike and the moment the market figures it out they mercilessly sell. The Fed has really one weapon at this point and they are using it. Problem is its a weapon for next year and there is no way to create increases in demand other than to get help from immediate government spending, whether it be tax cuts or pork barrel spending. The price we pay for having an independent Fed, but its important to keep it that way. Fed is just hoping the market turns and creates some wealth effect again with its cuts because they know that low rates won't really do much for the economy other than get some mortgage refinancing going, but that has almost run its course as well. Right now everyone just has to sit back and wait for the recovery. People are getting anxious, but it looks to me that it will be a blockbuster recovery once it gets going. It won't get going instantly as some hope, but it will build momentum slowly and then be a big boom. Companies have used the slowdown to make long-term staffing and capacity cuts to the point that productivity will be huge and it looks like it will take at least 18 months until OPEC gets oil prices up to high levels again. Low inflation, low interest rates, low energy costs, and very productive businesses looks to be a blockbuster combination for the market and I expect it to really be going by middle of the summer. Besides people need to remember that other recessions haven't seen the economy end in the good shape this one will end in. Usually unemployment is over 7% and real incomes are stagnant. As the end of this recession comes (barring any more terrorist disasters), unemployment should be at or under 6% and all this time real incomes are still growing.
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