Re: Results not important, please critique flop and turn play
That is not true. Hero is being offerred odds of $213 for calling a bet of $88 on the turn. His call does NOT count in the EV calculations. He can either win $213 or lose $88 for making that $88 bet.
There are 5 cases:
1) Villain has the straight and hero does not draw out;
2) Villain has the straight and hero draws out;
3) Villain does not have the straight but does have a straight draw and draws out;
4) Villain does not have a straight but does have a draw but does not draw out;
5) Villain does not have a straight and is bluffing or drawing dead or only to 1 card.
Calculate the probability of each case that is possible with the river board, determine each case's payoff/loss (expectation), multiply the probabilities of each case by its expectation, and add them up for an overall EV.
With the other assumptions that poster made as to percentages of time villain has a draw or is drawing dead when not having the straight on the turn, you will find that the villain has to not have the straight on the turn >73% of the time for hero's call to be +EV. However this would change if you gave a substantially greater probability to villain playing a lower set/overpair in a funny manner with no straight draws to go with it.
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