Re: How low would you go...
x=% of time you call and win
Total chips = 6,150,000
Total prize money playing for = $1M ($250k already wrapped up for each)
Fold = 825k
825k/6150k = 13.4% * $1M = $134,146
Call and win = 2,015,000
2015000/6150000 = 32.8% * $1M = $327,642
Call and lose = OUT
Value of calling = x($327,642)
$327,642x = 134,146
x=134,146/327,642
x= 40.9%
So theoretically, if you win 40.9% of the time the value of calling equals the value of folding. We obviously need to win more than that for it to be profitable. 50%? 60%? I'd probably lean toward the 50% number.
Put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo. That sounds about right based on what you've said. Therefore, you could call with 66+, A9s+, KQs+, ATo+ and have greater than 50% equity. If you wanted to be very (perhaps too) conservative and require 60% equity you would need TT+, AQs+, AK. Obviously there's a middle ground there as well. I do think he could be pushing with a huge range of hands here and doubling up gives you a legitimate shot at 1st.
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