View Single Post
  #5  
Old 12-22-2005, 11:29 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: semi-bluffed all the way to the river...and I miss.

Hmm...let me first start out by saying that I usually play a relatively tight game, sacrificing some small edges for a smaller standard deviation. I particularly stay tight if I don't have a read on the other guys (as you indicate here).

Pre-flop, I don't like the call. Unless you are up against some really LAG folks, you are probably the underdog to one if not both of the other players. Other players also tend to notice a potential flush relatively quickly, so even if you hit your hand you may not get paid off. If an ace hits, you had better have two pair or you will still have to play assuming you are beaten.

On the flop, I can see the bluff. You have the gutshot straight and flush draws, and the flop is not likely to have hit anyone. When he raises you, you have 12 outs to hit your hand and if my quick math is correct you are getting odds for the call.

On the turn, I check-fold (assuming he bets enough to beat your pot odds). If he bets low enough to call, my plan would be to check-raise if the two comes up, or bet enough to induce a call if the flush hits. He's represented strength already, and I don't think it is likely that he dumps his hand to your bet. It did slow him down a bit (as it probably would me), but since the 8 isn't likely to have helped you I don't think he's any more scared now than on the flop. You can certainly try to knock him out with the bluff, but in this instance I cut my losses and go.

On the turn, I don't think you had any other options. He may not have a great hand himself, but you can't beat much that he could possibly be holding.

I'm still learning myself, so everyone can feel free to comment on my thinking. Adios, and good luck.
Reply With Quote