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Old 12-26-2005, 05:04 AM
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Default Re: cap, check/whiff, check/fold

Hobbs, I think the difference between checking this flop and betting this flop are closer than you think. Since any A,K or club on the turn will likely ruin your hand, your equity in this pot will change dramatically with the turn card, which means the correct line of action on the flop is close between these two lines:
1) bet the flop
2) check and call the flop with the intention of donk betting a blank turn card.

IMO betting the flop is only the superior line if you believe the tag will fold AK without a club. If you think the tag will still peel the flop with AK no club if you bet, then the "check/call flop, bet turn blank line" becomes the best strategy IMO since this line will allow you to minimize your investment on the flop when you are likely in a way behind/barely ahead situaion, thus allowing you to fold to a bad turn card(A,K,club) at a minimum cost, or bet out out a turn blank when you are now in a way behind/decently ahead situation) where your equity is much larger than on the flop.

IF I had no read on either opponent I would take the bet flop line. But checking this flop does not "suck" IMO
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