[mmbt0ne]

Alright, let's give villian some hands.

TT-AA, AKo, AKs sounds good I think. TT might be a stretch, but hey.

TT - 6 (3 good, 3 bad)
JJ - 6 (3 good, 3 bad)
QQ - 2 (both bad)
KK - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad)
AA - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad)
AKo - 12 (6 good, 6 bad)
AKs - 4 (3 good, 1 bad)

The bad hands represent those that DON'T have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in them.

Let's see what we know:
a) He isn't happy to get check-raised if he's holding TT or JJ without a spade.
b) Even if he does have a spade, I think there's is good folding equity assuming that you bet out the turn and the river if no spade falls.
c) He definitely isn't going anywhere with QQ, and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
d) He's certainly 3-betting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and probably QQ too.
e) You're getting 4.25:1 on your semi-bluff
f) This player likes to see the flop, but doesn't show any interest in continuing on with an unimproved hand.

Ok, now for some math:

I've given him 42 possible holdings. Of those, you appear to be ahead of 15 of them. 9 of them have 6 outs twice, with 2 of those being VERY scary for villian, and 6 of them have 14 outs twice (actually making it a favorite against 44 despite a possible redraw).

On all the other hands you have 2 outs, and varying amounts of fold equity.

Let's say he always folds all 9 of the AK combinations that only have 6 outs against you. Now he's folding 9/42 = 21.428% of the time. 4.25:1 is laying you 19.048%.

Given that I think he'll fold some TT and JJ combinations that don't have spades, it looks like a solid play.

Of course, this is all dependant on whether or not the 3-betting standards I gave him are too loose. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he'd only 3-bet JJ-AA and AKs. Without running any more calculations, I would be surprised to see a check-raise be +EV in that situation.