Re: Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
Wow, that villain is very tight over a huge sample... I'd be interested in his ATSB before I 3bet 88 here.
Villain appears quite aggressive postflop, so the flop 3bet is okay, but i'd prefer a call down if we were in position so we can guarantee 1 bet goes in on each street and not risk getting raised on the turn.
As you said, the river bet is bad... Villain isn't raising any hands with a 4 or 2 in them preflop, so the only flop pair to be made is a T, while PPs may often fold since the river card is so bad for him given hero's possible hand range...I think check-call is definitely a better play here, it comes off as a busted flush draw which villain may attempt to bet out of the pot if he himself is on a weak holding.
The other possibility is that tstone put villain on either a T or a flush draw, and saw an opportunity to fold a T on the river when the K hits, since hero's "AK" is now ahead in addition to the big PP he is representing...but he'd have to be aware of this player being able to make a tough laydown.
Surf
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