[Pedigree]

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There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet.

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The average Party .5/1 unknown will call the river unflinchingly with either of those hands.

I think this is where you're going wrong. You're assuming your opponents have the same calling standards you do and are playing rationally and thoughfully, as you are. You are wrong about this. Villain has already showed that he isn't playing rationally; like you said yourself, no matter what hand he flips over, we already know he misplayed it. Why do you automatically assume that a guy who butchered his hand on either the flop or turn will suddenly wake up and play sanely on the river?

(FWIW, I agree that AK is the most likely hand for villain in the sense that AK has been played the least badly out of villain's possible range. We want to bet the river to grab an extra half-bet from the straggler).

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Sh.it forgot about the straggler. Yes now I'd bet here.

I'm still not convinced heads up. If he has JJ or TT you have to admit that there is some chance he's folding. Especially considering the queen of clubs falling on the river. He got scared by a 7 on the turn, how's he going to react to a Q. I really think that even the most terrible of players is folding JJ or TT most (but probably not all) of the time. But he will almost never fold AA. That's why I'm not ready to say that the majority of the time you bet and get called here you have the best hand.

Again, with the other guy in the hand (which I missed in my last post) I bet this.