Re: party 15/30 river line
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I think that most people familiar with the 15/30 game on party would agree with me that even if utg+2 doesn't bet, I can expect this flop to bet at least 90% of the time.
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But if you bet this flop, it gets bet 100% of the time. I would say 90% is way too high for a 6 handed flop. Remember there was a raise and 4 cold callers, just because the 4 cold callers are in the pot doesn't mean they will bet if the pre flop raiser doesn't bet. Again, even some of the most aggressive players won't bet AK or AQ against 5 others. agressive does not necessarily mean foolish. This flop is bet 60% of the time at best if you check it.
Even if you were 100% sure you could get a checkraise in, a bet may lead to a raise and a 3 bet. A checkraise also defines your hand to other players as a set or 2 pair (most likely a set given the board) better than an unassuming bet from early position does. If the preflop raiser has an overpair and bets it, you checkraise, he may not 3 bet. But if you bet into his overpair, he will definitely raise and you can 3 bet.
It seems to me you must bet this flop for value. It doesn't even appear to be close.
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