[Bozeman]

vs. AhJs EV=10.96 if you and he have 16K and 14K left at the flop.

vs. jcjs, EV=10.4.

Your play gives EV=5.6 given your assumptions (including you will fold 20% of the time on the turn).

However, there are 17 cards that are hearts or pair the board. If your o has Ah and a blank, then 16 cards worry you (16/45=35.6%) while 7 make his hand (7/45=15.6%), and if he has jc js, 7 cards make his hand, and 8 more cards worry you (33.3% total). Because there are many cards that scare you that do not hurt you, it seems that you lose too much EV by preparing to fold the turn unless your o's will always check a losing hand on the turn, or will call with a beat hand.

So, if you are not afraid of a higher made flush, I think the better play is all-in. (though the pot raise does reduce the variance, so for extremely unusual bubble situations it may be preferred)

Still, I haven't considered how the possibility of facing a bigger made flush affects this,

Craig