Re: World Series Game 3
Interestingly enough though Pinnacle has the best price on the CWS moneyline, the run line for the Sox is poor.
Historically I am told that the +1.5 runline for large road dogs (especially with low totals) has been a winning subset. My own spreadsheet based on lines from the past 7 years though shows Pinnacle over-adjusting for the run - making the run line a poor bet compared to the ML at that particular book. Square books such as Bowman's and Sports Interaction have the run line being a very slightly better bet according to my formulas.
Here are the numbers from Pinnacle and Bowman's:
ML at Pinnacle on CWS - +172
Sox +1.5 at Pinny -145
ML at Bowmans on CWS - +162
Sox +1.5 at Bowmans -135
Pinnacle is charging an extra 20 cents for the run.
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