[srt19170]

If I wasn't clear, I was looking at the "Won $ at SD" percentage (thoughtfully provided by Pokertracker on the "Misc. Stats" tab). So in my case, I've only carried high card to showdown 3% of the times I've ended with high card; of those times, I've won 11%.

However, I think your second point is very interesting. I hadn't thought about it in exactly these terms, but I think the value of what I'm suggesting is that it provides an empirical way to calculate the EV of your judgement.

Ed Miller posted something (in micro-limits, I think) which said "don't fold a big pot for one bet on the river." (Or maybe I read it in SSH.) At any rate, part of his point is to play the pot odds *instead* of your intuition. Your intuition is that you're beat, so you want to fold your hand to save a bet. But with big pot odds, your intuition only has to be wrong occasionally for you to profit.

What I'm suggesting is that if you track your performance you can empirically calculate what "big pot odds" means -- the point where the pot odds break even for you. One of the nice things about this is that it is a personalized number for you. You might play many more high card hands to showdown than I do, in which case your pot odds number is likely to be much higher.

Obviously, if you have other information that you think is reliable you have to use it. But -- speaking for myself -- in many cases where I'm holding high card or a pair on the river I really haven't a clue where I stand. This method gives you an analytic tool to narrow in on the +EV strategy.

-- Scott