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Old 11-14-2005, 12:06 AM
nath nath is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 79
Default Re: You remember i hate those Js? We\'ll they are back! (PS215!)

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i think that once you've called preflop, you've pretty much committed yourself to getting your chips in there on any undercard/set flop. at least, that's the way my mindset would be.

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I don't like this here. After the preflop action, the flop and that bet, what is hero ahead of? He is behind all pairs 99 and up. A missed AK is the only hand hero beats. A laydown here is probably correct.

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what flop would you be happy with then (other than one containing a J)?

are you just folding preflop?

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Let's see. What about evaluating each piece of information in context with one another? The flop is not independent of villain's flop bet is not independent of villain's preflop bet is not independent of hero's bet is not independent of hero's holding.

Look, I know pushing is an easy and common play, and it's easy to say "overpair vs. overpair, what can you do." But I think there's something to be said for identifying that you're behind here, or at least trying to use the information available to determine so, and not just saying "It's an overpair, all in!"

So let's look at the action:

Hero raises UTG+1, representing a strong hand. Opponent reraises, but not all-in-- NOT disinviting action. This suggests a stronger hand than JJ, but is not necessarily so-- could be AK or even TT-99. So, sure, it's OK to call.
Now: The flop comes down T9x. If he has a reraising pair, it's now beating you. You're only beating AK. His large flop bet suggests he's already made.

Whether or not you disagree with any of this is up to you, but this is my thought process which suggests a laydown here.
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