[WhiteWolf]

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In the short run, it runs more like 60/40, but most of that 40% find a way to lose in the long run.


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The 40/60 numbers come from ring players PT stats... the 7-8% only makes sense once you account for STT and MTT players and other factors.

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I think OrangeKing has it right... You will only have a small number of hands on most of the players in your PT database. So you will have some long term losers that went on a short-term win streak and have positive numbers in your db, and you will have some long-term winners who had a short-term bad streak and are losers in your db. Since there are so many more losers than winners, you will misclassify many more losers as winners than the other way around.

Some math to illustrate:
Assume 90% long term losers and 10% long term winners.
Assume, because of small sample size, you misclassify 1/3 of the long-term losers as winners and 1/3 of the long-term winners as losers.
The percentage of players you will classify as winners are:
(.33 * 90%) + (.67 * 10%) = 36.4%
which is suprisingly way off the true number of 10%.