Re: Final table hand of a Party 50+5
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It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)
However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)
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What sucks about this table is that stacks are PERFECT for the hero to go nuts and steal like it's his job off the small and medium stacks, and that's the kind of situation where you don't mind risking busting early (if someone wakes up with Aces) for a chance to take over the table and steamroll your way to first. HOWEVER the position is horrendous with the big stack to the hero's immediate left. My thinking at this point is how to remove this road block. So how do we do that?
Well best case is that there is no road block. The guy's not bullying his stack and you can raise into him all day. Then just proceed with plan A and suckout if he finds a hand.
But more often the big stack knows hes a big stack and has some aggro in him. In a spot like this with 86s I would just complete as sort of a test. If he comes over the top or if he checks, you can guage his aggression levels. Also, in the ideal case where you get to a flop, you have a chance to weasel your way to a double up and REALLY be in a good spot to take things over. And if you whiff or he raises, not much harm done, just figure out a new plan.
This post was as much of a question as an answer. It's an interesting stack situation that needs a full game plan beyond this hand. Any thoughts?
Everett
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