[marbles]

Scenario: One table tournaments, buy-in is $11 ($1 for the house). Payouts are $50 for 1st, $30 for 2nd, $20 for 3rd.

Assumption: Hero will finish in 3rd twice as often as 2nd, and finish in 2nd twice as often as 1st. This is based on a strategy that rarely puts the hero in strong chip position once all remaining players are in the money.

Question: Bankroll issues aside, how often would our hero have to finish in the money in order to break even LR? I've been getting 40.5%, which seems awfully low to me. Here is my calc:
p=probability of 3rd place.
E.V.=0=-11+20(p)+30(.5)(p)+50(.25)(p)
p=.232
prob (in the money)=p+.5p+.25p=.232+.116+.058=.405 (rounded)

If this is right, wouldn't a player finishing ITM 50% of the time have a huge +EV?