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Old 07-22-2002, 09:09 PM
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Default Re: Poll: Dow bottom



I have no idea, this is such a guess. After all its an index and not of the types of stocks that are going to lead to the next bull run. I keep feeling its about bottom now and it keeps going down. As I said, its pointless to look at fundamentals right now, this is all about fear. What is really ridiculous is that the pundits write it off about "earnings disappointments", but the reality is earnings are far more positive than disappointing on average. One key name could have a small shortfall and that would push the indexes down in spite of 5 others have modest upside results. It really is the market where only the bad news is looked at. In that light who knows how far it goes. Its just quite clear that a lot of money is sitting there just waiting to get back in. Institutional money is loaded up to the gills right now looking for the correct entry point, one that will come only when the fear and market noise quiets down. After all why get into the market now when its been a daily downfall? If you miss the entry by a day or two its no big deal. With this in mind I think the market will find its bottom fairly soon and then it will have a very strong rally for a time, maybe 10-15% quickly up as there is all this money waiting to get back in. After that there probably will be some reconsolidation and then a slow trend up. Getting back to 9000 is a good question to, obviously it could be quite quick if the bottom is reached soon.
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