1. 15%

2. 5%

3. 35%

4. 45%


I would say it has support now, not much news will come out past the next week as far as earnings go and then after that all the good economic data will slowly drive it up. I don't know if its a bull market, but its a market with a gradually evolving up bias and I would guess it ends 2002 between 1175-1300. I think the negativity is quite pronounced now, but will turn as the economy picks up more steam. I certainly don't buy the double dip theory, I think that is 5% chance at best. The economy won't match the Q1 growth again until maybe Q4, but it should show positive readings for quite some time due to all the accomodative stuff going on. For the double dip to come into play would require either a run on the dollar which seems extremely unlikely or some drastic terrorist actions or outright war with much more than Israel and a bunch of impotent Arab nations going at it. Oil might play a role in it, but I don't see that happening either. All these "possible" things are really 1-2% chance each at best. And believe me world events and economic news will be the drivers for some time, not the Enron crisis or inflationary worries.