Re: 10/20 Q9s
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Definitely possible.
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This will happen very rarely against loose passives and when it does it means we'll have at most 14 outs (30% equity). A loose passive won't 3-bet on this coordinated board with less than a set and he's more likely to already hold a straight.
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Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.
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Not maybe, definately.
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Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.
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I first estimated 80%, I think that's too low given his flop aggression. At the same time he could have gotten aggressive on the flop with a marginal hand to thin the field. However, x=<90% for sure.
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Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.
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I'm not really sure what you mean. We'll get more callers by varying our play and raise big draws sometimes. This should be done occassionally. And this isn't my favorite spot to be doing it since I think the EV of a call is much higher than the EV of a raise. We should varying our play when there's only a small differance. I would like some folding equity here to lower the gap between the 2 lines to make me like raising the turn.
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