Re: Okay, I\'ll go first!
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* I'll let you pick some number of players. If a single one of those players wins a bracelet at the 2005 WSOP, you win the bet. How many players do you need to list before you are a favorite in this bet?
2000 of the players that I feel were most likely to win (i.e be above average, so with a chance between 1/250 and 1/167) based on a field of 5000.
I still don't think I'd be a "favorite" but I'll take that as close enough to bet on.... not for big money however.
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I may be misreading what Paul wrote, but I belief when he said "winning a bracelet in 2005," he meant from any event, not just the championship event.
In that regard, 2000 would be an insanely high number, as some events (i.e. no limit 2-7 lowball) still draw just 47ish players. (And ace to five only drew slightly more than 100 I think)
However, the numbers increased heavily from 2003 to 2004, and I do not see why this trend will not continue, but if Paul did in fact mean "from any event," I would take this bet if I could pick 12 players. I would feel great about my chances if I could pick 15. If I could pick 20, I would feel foolish to lose.
I could be waaaaay wrong here though.
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