Re: Lead or CR this river?
Leading 3/4 of the pot on turn seems awful to me. Villian's fishing for [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s, so we want to give him "correct" pot odds to fish for them.
I bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn.
Now the river club hits, and you're out of position, and pretty sure he has the flush. Your turn bet looks a lot like a flush draw, and an overbet on the river should certainly signal a flush to him; if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]orK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush at this point, then prepare to stack him off. Depending on how competent he is, an overbet might fold a small flush-- this would suck.
I say weak lead turn for 25-30$, and bet about 250 on the river.
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