[deception5]

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I prefer bet/folding the turn.


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This isn't an option here. Are you saying you'd just fold to the turn donkbet?


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That was my bad, I misread the action and thought hero check/raised.

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I'm not really sure what I'd do here -- if I think UTG+1 is capable of betting the turn when he picks up a flush draw, then I'd probably raise and try to convince BB to fold. I think that someone who just spiked a Q would be more likely to check/raise so a semi-bluff from UTG+1 looks like a definite possibility here.

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The real question is do we want BB to fold here. If we raise and BB calls, there's a very good chance we're behind. If we raise and BB folds, then we just got a hand like AK/AJ/AT/TT/99/etc to fold - only AK has 6 outs against us, the rest have 2-3 (or already have us beaten) and it's dubious whether we have the best hand anymore when UTG+1 wakes up. If we had 99 I'd like the raise better as there would be some value in getting TT/JJ to fold.

Raising may be the right play on the turn, but only if we think UTG+1 is semi-bluffing, not because we want BB to fold (well the exception would be if he has JJ, but it's unlikely and if he does he didn't play it well).

Of course if UTG+1 is not capable of semi-bluffing here then we should just fold to his bet.