Re: The Ballot Box
Pseudo, I tried your new formulas and I got the following answers for a = 3 votes and b = 2 votes.
Counting:
AAABB, AABAB,
AABBA, ABAAB, ABABA, ABBAA,
BAAAB, BAABA, BABAA, BBAAA.
8 ties out of 10 = 4/5.
Formulas:
p(odd)=0
p(2) =3/5
p(4) =3/5
P(2) =3/5
P(4) =2/5*3/5 = 6/25
chance of tie at any point = P(2)+P(4)= 6/25+ 3/5 = 21/25
21/25 is close, but not perfect. (The new formulas were often correct and always close in every example I tried.)
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