Make this UGLY call?
This hand's pretty interesting I think. Villain is fairly solid, but not particularly bold or imaginative.
Level XII: 200 Ante 500/1,000 Blinds (100 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 30,000 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 5 (15 started)
Seat 3 : Sailor Moe starts with 60,900
Seat 5 : SuperFlop starts with 28,200
Seat 6 : coach1126 starts with 16,800
Seat 9 : CieloAzor starts with 31,100
Seat 10 : Shadowfax starts with 13,400
Seat 9 : CieloAzor has the dealer button
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
CieloAzor dealt down Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Sailor Moe posts the ante 200
SuperFlop posts the ante 200
coach1126 posts the ante 200
CieloAzor posts the ante 200
Shadowfax posts the ante 200
Shadowfax posts the small blind 500
Sailor Moe posts the big blind 1,000
SuperFlop raises 3,500 to 4,500
coach1126 folds
CieloAzor calls 4,500
Shadowfax calls 4,000
Sailor Moe calls 3,500
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Shadowfax bets 8,700 and is all-in
Sailor Moe folds
SuperFlop folds
CieloAzor calls 8,700
-------------------------
If there were anybody still to act behind me, it's tough to even consider a call here. But with 27700 already in the pot and a price of 8700 to call, I'm being laid about 3.2 to 1 on this call and need to win about 24% of the time to break even.
If villain has a T, I'm usually an 85/15 dog. (KT has me almost dead, 98/2)
If villain has something like KJ, I'm a 67/33 dog.
If villain has an underpair to the board (can be counterfeited), it's almost a coinflip (54.5/45.5).
Of course I didn't know the exact math of the situation at the table, but I had a general idea of what kind of shape I could be in and the odds were very comely. I didn't feel villain needed a T to make this push, but I didn't think I could have possibly had the best hand, unless villain had KQ exactly.
Anybody like/hate the call?
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