Re: Hand probabilities.
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Suppose I have Ad2d3hKh in a 10-handed game.
Somewhere I have seen a stat that says that there is a 36% chance that someone was dealt the nut heart draw.
However, I am not so sure this number is accurate (though in real play, I am sure it is close enough)
If the flush never shows, then I really don't care about that opposing AhXh. The only time I care is when I see the board. But now the deck composition is very different. The pool of unseen cards is no longer 48 cards with 11 hearts.
Assuming we are at the river, the pool of unseen cards is down to 43 and only 8 of them are hearts.
It seems this makes the K-high flush quite a bit more likely to be the winner. On the other hand, I don't know how the 36% figure was calculated or if it accounted for the board cards in this way.
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Another question to ask yourself, how willing our you to defend your 2nd nut flush if you are bet into or raised?
In PLO8, I've often taken pots down on the flop or by simply holding the A and betting like I have the flush or flush draw. Obviously this requires the right board or your hand to have some strong redraws for the high and a low shot. For limit, the 2nd nut flush is probably much more playable and profitable.
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