Re: Which Twin has the Tony?
To be clear on the experiment; The twin girls and their haircuts are fixed. One of them is older. One has the Tony haircut, we just don't know which. The repeatable, random part of the experiment involves the doors they stand behind. If the experiment is repeated, half the time the older twin will be behind door #1 and half the time she will be behind door #2.
Before any door is opened the probabilty that the older twin is behind door #2 is 50%. But now suppose door #1 is opened to reveal the twin with the Tony. We still don't know whether she is the older or younger twin. But those who say that the probabilty is still 50% that the older twin is behind door #2 are wrong.
Do you see why?
PairTheBoard
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