[Rick Nebiolo]

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It seems to me that you are far ahead in this hand. The hand I would put him on is Ace 5, possible with the draw as well. He figures you for two pair or the straight, so it is a question of whether he wants to try and draw against you. When the 5 comes out and you check, it gives him the green light to bet his top set and try to take the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

With $450 and change villain doesn't really have a monster stack relative to the $4 big blind (for example, 100 times the blind is the Party Poker restricted buy in). Because of the small stack sizes, I would expect he would have some gamble even if he is very tight and/or solid. So IMHO villain flopping a set is at most a small favorite.

I'm not sure that A5 is the exact hand but Hero has to realize he is ahead (and can stay ahead) of quite a few hands. Hero just has to estimate how possible and look at the size of the pot. In this case Hero is close to potstuck. There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.

~ Rick