Re: River Value Bet?
Here's the thing about flushes. First, they're tough to get. They're usually not out there. Second, when people hit them on the river, they often bet out because they are afraid that other players will check it down because nobody value bets the river enough. I mean, you are thinking about checking down a set here. Players see this over and over again and they bet out with their flushes.
Plus, all the action on the turn makes it less likely anyone has a flush. People don't usually go chucking raises around to charge themselves more money when there's no chance their opponents fold.
Unless you have compelling reason to expect a checkraise, such as a strong player calling two bets cold twice (who despite the obviousness of his hand chooses to check the river), you should bet here every time.
-Michael
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