Re: Okay, I\'ll go first!
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* dan harrington - What are his chances of making the final table in 2005, assuming a field of 5000? Say final 10 to simplify the math. The exactly average player's chances are 1/500. What are dan's?
1/600, based on regression to the mean. Based on pure skill (meaning, talent, experience, intangibles) I'd put Dan H at 1/250.
[/ QUOTE ] I think you're wrong here. Each main event is more or less an independent event, so there is no regression to the mean.
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