Re: TP against flop aggression
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I can't think of a hand that he won't PFR, then CR and cap the flop that you beat after the turn. He either flopped 2 pair and is protecting from the diamond draw or has a big draw, which more than likely got there on the turn. Only two hands I think he calls with in MP and that you are beating after the flop action are T8o and JTo, with JTo being most likely. Given the possibilities of all the other hands I don't think you are good 10% of the time here.
Like I said, given that I still probably call this, though it is likely a small leak.
I'd love to see what he did have.
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If you pokerstove it you have the odds to call down if you add JTo to the mix, even more so if you add T8o as well. I suck at putting people on hand ranges, but I agree with everything you say except that JTo and T8o is so trigger happy that they cap the flop, lead the turn and the river.
If we give him a range of Q9s, T9dd, T8dd, 97s, Q9o after the flop we have 8.5 % to improve to the best hand on the river. Not enough to call profitably. Add ONE combination of JTo and our percentage jumps to 14.5 %, changing things a bit.
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