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Anyway, you can make up these scenarios all day where it ends up as a coinflip for all your chips or whatever, but I still think this is as good a situation as any to play poker with the guy.

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Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think you are evading the point I was trying to make. That is, because of effective odds, the situation isn't as good as it appears. The player stands to gain very little as a moderate favorite and lose a lot as a moderate dog.

Do you believe that effective odds is the over-riding consideration for playing or not playing the hand?

If yes, then how do you justify playing the hand in the context of effective odds.

If no (effective odds is not the key consideration), then what is the key consideration for the decision to stay in the hand and how does that consideration justify staying in?