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Old 08-25-2005, 05:00 PM
AliasMrJones AliasMrJones is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 377
Default Re: Pocket 2\'s ITM with even stacks

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ICM says this is a push with any 2 cards, even if BB has loose calling standards

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Well this is my point - ICM says that pushing is better than folding here with any 2. My deeper question is what about calling? What about min raising? What about 3x raising? These all have +/- $ev depending on cirumstances. If I can steal the blinds 80% of the time with a 3x raise and cut my chance of busting out very significantly then it is likely a better play.

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The problem here is that you have significant equity against many hands that will push against you when you call/min-bet or min-raise. 3xBB raise and then fold is just out of the question with less than 10xBB.

When you don't push, you're leaving open the door for Ax, Kx , Qx, Jx hands against which you will play very well to push you off your hand stealing the equity you had. That's not a good thing. A push eliminates that option. You aren't folding if your chips are in the middle. It also lets BB know the situation. Not, I think I should steal the blinds here so I'll min-raise so I can fold and still be in it, but you're playing for all your chips (or almost all) buddy. Do you want to do that right now?

Basically, you don't have enough chips to mess around with limping or min- or 3xBB raises and then folding. It costs you too much of your stack. You also don't want to be pushed off your hand because you have too much equity. Your fold equity here is excellent and when you're called you're often ahead. Hence - Pooooosh.
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