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Old 12-15-2005, 08:13 AM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

You have to be careful here. Let's take the Ace high flush on the flop. I assume you mean the Ace (or highest suited card not on the board) is in your hand and there are no straight flush possibilities.

Someone staring at three suited cards on the board is likely to stay in only with a flush, three of a kind or two pair. A flush can't outdraw you, three of a kind will outdraw you 28% of the time, two pair will outdraw you 16% of the time. If there is more than one caller, the odds of being outdrawn obviously increase.

When someone calls you on the flop, most of the time they'll fold when they'll fold when they don't improve on the turn or river. Therefore, if the hand goes to showdown, you're likely to win only if the other player has a flush. That will be the most common calling hand, it should be about 80% of the time.

Most of the time, no one will have a calling hand and you'll take the pot uncontested. Even at a 10-player table, with everyone staying in preflop, someone will have one of these hands only 42% of the time. At a real table, everyone will fold to your nut flush about 80% of the time.

Therefore, if you have a nut flush on the flop, about 80% of the time everyone will fold to you immediately, another 10% of the time everyone will fold before showdown, maybe 8% of the time you'll beat another flush or an optimistic lesser hand and about 2% of the time you'll lose to a full house or quads. Obviously, these predictions depend crucially on the style of play at the table.

So if you mean you had five nut hands in a row that lost, the probability is something like 1 in 10,000 (it's hard to be precise because the straight and set hands depend on what else is on the board). But if you mean you had five nut hands that went to showdown in a row and lost, meaning you had some nut hands in between where everyone folded, the probability is more like 1 in 100.
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