[BTirish]

Even at 1/2 and 2/4, I give opponents some credit for their aggression until I see them make a dumb play. I would assume that this is an even better policy at 20/40. I don't think you get to assume both that the villain in this hand is sub-reasonable and that he remembers the dead 9 and therefore figures there is value in leading out on 6th.

My point is that the holdings for which his 6th street play are the most reasonable are trip A's or 8's full. Obviously he played 5th street a little weak, but he likely got the same amount of bets in that he would have in the end. It might be true that more than 50% of the time an opponent here would pay off with A's up, but I don't think it's obvious that the opponent has A's up most of the time here for the bet to be valuable.

There are a lot more ways that he can have a single A in the hole than TT to KK. Sure, being rolled up is the least likely mathematically... but do we just never suspect that an opponent is likely rolled up and save a bet? We all consider calling down against a paired door card a mistake, and I usually consider a game at 1/2 or 2/4 where one or two opponents consistently do so a really juicy game.