View Single Post
  #14  
Old 11-09-2005, 04:30 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

Benwood - I guess I'd slow play it.

I'd slow play it because I'd want as many customers as possible on the turn and river. I'd hope that somebody would have the ace-high flush, and if not, that somebody had a non-nut flush that might seem more valuable if nobody bet on the second betting round. And I'd hope that if nobody else already had the nut low that the current nut low would get counterfeited so that somebody who maybe held A5XY would make a wheel and think that was a good hand here. But mainly I'd hope the board would pair and an opponent would make a full house or quads - or even trips. Something! (I'd hope an opponent made something - anything).

On the other hand, when somebody does have the ace-high flush, or when somebody does have the nut low, you gain from that opponent by betting. Maybe even when an opponent has a king-high flush you gain by betting. I think (considering your hand) somebody else has the ace-high flush here about one time in three, and I think (considering your hand) somebody else has the nut low about two times in five. So nobody figures to have either of those only about two times in five. In other words, somebody is expected to have either the nut flush or tie you for the nut low about three times in five - more often than not. And somebody might chase (depending) without the ace-high flush or the nut low (as, for example, with the king-high flush or the second nut low).

So it seems a tough choice to me. I think you're more likely to get someone (who thinks he/she has flopped the nuts) to call your bet, or even raise, than not. However, if you don't bet, that person will likely bet for you, and anybody else who calls will be trapped. And if nobody bets, somebody who might otherwise fold might catch a card on the turn, or revalue their hand on the basis on nobody betting.

If you have some nitwit (maniac) sitting next to you who likes to raise your bets and who will bet if you don't, you don't want the possible double bet scaring away customers. Or even someone who is not a nitwit might raise your bet and knock everybody else out. Someone with also the nut low and an oblique draw for high (say two pair, bottom set, or a non-nut flush), and who put you on the nut low for your bet, might do well to try to limit the field. Lots of different possibilties here... I haven't thought this completely through...

Anyhow, although you might lose a bet, I think you stand to gain more by slow playing it. My first instinct was to slow play it, and after thinking it through a bit, I'm sticking with that.

Slow play it.

Buzz
Reply With Quote