[Lawrence Ng]

Hi Fox,

I don't comment very much on NL/PL hands because often times the situations are very unique and a lot of hands posted here have too many variables unaccounted for.

With two deep stacks involved, the turn and river play is extremely important via the set-over-set encounter.

ML4L has hit nearly everything I wanted to say, but I there's a flaw in both of your thinking.

It is obvious UTG has as a set. You know that based his play so far. What isn't obvious is that he doesn't know you have KK. You think that he thinks you have KK. If I were UTG (and given that he is a good player), I would put you on 50/50 AK or KK. Simply put, if I even think you have KK 70 percent of the time in this situation, I will fold my flopped set.

Your bet on the turn was perfect to lure him in. His biggest mistake was just calling the turn. No good player here is just going to call the turn with a flopped set, deep stacks and a scared King comes on the turn. His mistake here is not check-raising $2000 to see where he stands. Do you think that he thinks you are the type of player who will play AK in this fashion too? The key here is what do you think he thinks? And what would you do if you were him and had his 99's and knew that an opponent might have spiked AK or KK. This is extremely important and I think you left this part out of your thought process. Is he a good enough player to really put you on KK, and if he does, why in the world would he call the turn?

Barring all math, pot odds aside and basing it solely on play, reads thus far, you have a clear river bet. If he continues to put you on AK/KK, he's going to call no matter what. Now what happens if he does check-raise you on the river given you bet say ..oh half the pot at around $1500.

Given that he probably puts you on AK/KK 50/50 here, a call is a must.

Lawrence