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Old 01-18-2005, 08:28 PM
Snoogins47 Snoogins47 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 102
Default Re: Folding bottom full on river

This is a bit tricky here...

One thing to think about, though it might be giving this player too much credit:

What would she put you on? Would she think you would re-raise preflop from the blinds with KQs, KJs, etc?

So, the likelihood of you having a flush is minimal. What would she probably put you on if you re-raised preflop (read as: what do most people re-raise preflop with?)

AK, or a big pair.

The blanket statement of "She wouldn't push with a flush on a paired board" might be true, but in this context, the board pairing, IMO, is not a devastating blow to the power of the flush. The fact is, if she's holding a flush, and doesn't have a read on you as an over aggressive player, her flush would place her beating every hand you could hold, with the notable exceptions of AA (very unlikely for obvious reasons) and JJ (might not always re-raise preflop with JJ, one hits the board, didn't make a larger bet on the river...) Given me personally, if I hadn't seen you re-raise preflop from the blinds with less than the big-dog hands, I would not need a full to make this river play.

Bankroll considerations aside, I think you're going to be shown a flush way more often than you'd need to make the river call profitable getting around 2.5 to 1, but who knows, I'm a bit of a fish.

My second note: I don't mind the smaller bet on the flop, but I think I'd like a much larger bet on the turn.
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