Thread: Chasing
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Old 08-19-2005, 05:11 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
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Default Re: Chasing

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My feeling is that with 16:1 odds that calling is corect with each of these hands even though these flops are not exactly a good fit.

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Jim - But it’s not just costing you one bet! Assuming no more raises, roughly it’s costing you one bet one third of the time (because you'll fold to 15 cards on the turn), but it’s costing you three bets another third of the time (because you'll fold to 15 or so more cards on the river) - and five bets the last third of the time. (That's admittedly a very approximate way to look at it).

However, assuming no more raising, by golly you’re right that you will have favorable odds to call one small bet on the second betting round, holding AsKs3d2c after a flop of QhTh6s! And the other two flops are even better for your hand!!

(You may want to be on the button to limp holding AsKs3d2c after a flop of QhTh6s.)

Looking at it from a defensive point of view, you should see that it’s important to bet and raise a flop of QhTh6s (assuming you have a nice fit) after a pre-flop raise just so as not to allow the pre-flop raiser favorable odds to limp after the flop with a poor fit. And without the pre-flop raise, by betting and raising this flop, you give your opponents even worse odds to limp!

If your opponents are playing correctly, and if they put you on A-2-3-X for your late position pre-flop raise, you’ll be looking at a double bet after this flop - and then you won’t have favorable odds to limp. But if they make a mistake and don’t raise after this flop, then, yes, you should take advantage of their mistake by limping yourself.

It’s not exactly the runner-runner low and flush draws that make the favorable odds for you. Three jacks don’t make the flush but do make you a straight. The runner-runner flush draw is approximately worth the same as each jack (one out). It’s more complicated than just that - bunch of different values for different drawing cards.

At any rate, yes, for the bargain price of one small bet, although your pot odds are not really 16 to 1, I think (figure) you do have favorable odds to draw. Just how favorable depends on how many of your opponents will continue to play. But they’re surely favorable.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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