The hand is showdownable against LAGgier types, I'll agree. But marginally showdownable. Calling down every single time, even against this guy, will cost money and be -EV. IMO, shania can't turn the (-) into a (+) here.

We may be close to even money in theory, but don't forget, this guy gets to choose when to put the bets in while we're OOP. Although we may be a coin toss from here on out, ANY discretion that this guy uses behind us will pull us further away from 50/50.

The correct application of metagame & positive EV here is to showdown UI some of the time. Doing it every time is a guaranteed loss.