[elysium]

hi lee and clark
actually lee, i think, not completely sure here though, but i think that there is ample info provided in pilchard's post. i am fairly certain that pilchard is in the lead here.

notice the turn. neither opponent, who pilchard rates as reasonable to very good, has any reason to believe that if they check, someone will bet. also notice that any bettor holding anything on the turn has a protected bet, while the absolute nuts has a very likely call and over-call. but, there is no hand that could risk a check-down unless it was the absolute nuts. but the absolute wouldn't do that; the absolute knows his bet will be called. could they be check-raising to the button, the only flop strength? and give him a free-card?, no way. if anything pilchard's raise on the flop would inspire betting by any betting hand.

the fourth diamond has frightened the UTG and UTG+1, unless the AJ or J9 just scored a straight flush. but because that card likely gave someone else a flush, only J9s would consider the slow-play check. but even J9s would never check if checked to on the turn. so that means that if J9s is out there, the UTG would have to have it. would the UTG limp in with J9s? lee, clark.....possibly. but both of you would agree that in this position in this type of game, that player would muck J9s about half the time. the odds of J9s being precisely in the UTG hand is about 30 or 40 to 1, but possible.

would he likely bet or check from UTG on that board that likely hit someone? he would likely bet. AJs would certainly bet to get called by the J hi on both the turn and river. he would also bet, as would the J9s, to get the bets in from sets and two pair trying to draw out. and of course, we come back to the biggest reason a strong hand would bet on the turn; the flop didn't produce a likely bettor, especially since the button's raise was only called and that the button could likely be raising for a free-card.

simple hand analysis tells us that almost unquestionably pilchard has a raise for value here and is clearly the favorite. can the J9s long, long shot be lurking in the check weeds? no! pilchard must raise for value. J9s is a figment of the imagination.


and clark i want to add that i always apply your fundemental theorem to every read; the clarkmeister's 'you would have heard from it by now!'. it has really helped me tremendously. i wish you and dynasty would get into it again like you used to do in the old days. a lot insight is introduced through your excoriations clark.