[Irieguy]

You are making this play because of your level of confidence in JJ's ability to make a mistake (ie, folding the best hand on the river.)

But, there is another mistake she is capable of making; tipping off the strength of her hand when she has a non-foldable monster.

Your line makes it very hard for her to call the river with anything less than KK,66, or A6... but is there a line that would make it just as hard for her to call the river, but easier for you to tell that she's pat?

Your description of her earlier play leads me to think that she could make a mistake on the flop with a nut hand, and is unlikely to try and take the pot there with a hand she would later abandon.

I like the flop check, because the whole point of this hand is to get her to put some money into the pot and then fold at the end. But I would have been inclined to check-raise the flop and lead the turn.

That line really isn't any weaker than the line you took, but it gives her an opportunity to make a mistake and disclose her strength on the flop. Since you really aren't worried about her pushing with a hand that she would fold on the river with (are you?), I would prefer that line as it allows me to save 500,000-700,000 chips the few times that she really has it.

What makes me even more inclined to c/r the flop is the very distinct possibility that she could have AK and wouldn't be able to lay it down on the end. She would definitely telegraph this on the flop and give me a chance to give up.

I think I want to be able to have a chance to give up on this hand considering the relative chip stacks this late in the event. I really wouldn't want to give it all away without at least a chance to uncover my fate if I'm running into something bad.

Irieguy