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Old 10-04-2005, 12:14 PM
Guy McSucker Guy McSucker is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,307
Default Re: Pain in the backside AJo hand

I've thought some more about this and the right move seems very clear, but of course it could be that my brain is not working.

If the preflop 3-bettor's range is what I think it is (as baron said, JJ+ and AQ+) then after the flop it's about 50/50 that I'm in front of him:

I beat:

JJ x 3
QQ x 6
KK x 6

I lose to:

AA x 1
AK x 8
AQ x 8

As for the other guys in the pot, anything could happen.

I think it's much easier to judge which side of this I'm on if I bet: if the PFR has me beat, he'll almost surely raise the flop for value, whereas if I am beating him it is very unlikely he'll raise all these players. So the flop action will tell me where I am, and on balance bets going in to this pot are +EV for me, so a bet can't be wrong and it will help me play accurately the rest of the way.

On the other hand a check could be awful since if the PFR bets I won't necessarily know where I am, and if he checks it through then I've given everyone a free card when I almost surely have the best hand.

So on balance I think a bet is the clear winner here. Anyone disagree?

Guy.
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