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Old 11-17-2005, 10:59 PM
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Default Re: Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong (Continued...)

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FatBallz (Wintermute?) - You have to bet twice as often to get your $25 back twice as often.

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Buzz, this is wrong. (The second part.)

Consider running this example 100 times. In either case, you risk $2500. In either case, you end up with $5,000 on average. The scenarios are equivalent in equity and risk.

Edit: One more thing w.r.t. the needing-to-count-your-$25-twice bit. You might argue that when you scoop, you *also* get your opponents $25, so that cancels out. However, you already counted his $25 in those situations by assigning 7:1 odds. We can't count his $25 twice, otherwise we're creating money out of thin air. We'd all get very rich very quickly doing that, which would be fun, but alas it is impossible. The $25 you're getting back twice as often when you draw at the low is the problem with your analysis.
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