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Old 12-07-2005, 02:40 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: When and When Not to Checkraise Bluff

I've wondered before, when someone tried to push me off of a big pair with a flop checkraise, how good or bad the play really was.

The particulars can vary, of course, but in this case (based on the range you gave), we have these hands that are definitely not folding:

AA = 3 combos
AK = 12 combos
AQ = 12 combos
AJ = 12 combos
ATs = 2 combos
TT = 3 combos

Okay, that's 44 combos. You're futiley investing at least 1 BB versus these hands with no chance of pushing Villain out. If Villain just calls your flop checkraise, you're going to be investing another BB in a losing cause (though you will occasionally get lucky and spike a set in the meantime).

These hands have a gutshot and will most likely see the turn:

KQ = 16 combos
KJs = 4 combos

So that's 20 combos you're most likely going to have to invest 2 BBs against. Against these hands, though, you'll often win 3 BBs for the effort.

These hands are going to be scared:

KK = 6 combos
QQ = 6 combos
JJ = 6 combos
99 = 6 combos
88 = 6 combos

That's 30 combos. A key question becomes how often Villain will release these. You'll win about 2 1/2 BBs for a 1 BB investment when he does.

When Villain actually has top pair or better, which is almost half of the time in this case, the play will be expensive. However, if Villain will release an underpair to the ace often enough, the play could become profitable.

If the rough estimate I just did in my head is correct, though, Villain will have to release 88-99 and JJ-KK to the flop checkraise about two out of three times that he holds those hands, in order for your play to be profitable.

I'm thinking you've got a decent shot at getting a fold out of the 88/99, but I doubt that very many Villains will release KK-JJ often enough to make this play profitable.
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