Re: Rogue waves
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3578 will win 4 times out of 10 vs. A259
QQ43 is a favorite and will win 5+ times out of 10 vs. A259
So I’d say you need to revise your definition of rogue waves.
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Dear Gergery,
Thanks for the reply. I didn’t explain the overall details of the two examples. Regarding the raising action by this particular player. His betting action puzzled me, it was very unusual. Something just did not seem right. Maybe the guy was an off and on sporadic maniac player. I’m sure he was not an accomplished player. When this guy (maybe in 5th position) had the 3578 hand, he initially raised a under the gun limper. I was in the cut off or button and called the raise with A (suited) 2 5 9. The early limper re-raised, and the 3578 hand capped the betting. The probability that this guy is going to win 40% of the time with 3578 in a three way action pot (in the long run) probably is not so, and I apologize for not giving all the details. Also before the fact, the probability that this guy perfectly makes the two hands he had against me is maybe on the order of 80 to 1 against. I was not complaining about a bad beat. I was just mentioning that rare combination events happen every so often. But also the pattern of this guy’s betting did not seem right – just my opinion.
Rare event examples: In Gardena, CA prior to 1982 (or so), players dealt the cards (there were no professional house dealers), only draw poker games were played (no stud or flop games were legal).
(1) I once dealt myself four of a kind, after having four of a kind on the previous deal. Most of the opponents thought I was cheating or suspected cheating, or at least teased me to that extent.
(2) Another time an old guy playing in a draw poker game would leave the table supposedly for a drink at the local Gardena bar, and the first time he dealt after returning, he dealt himself quads and an opponent a full house. The second time he came back, on his first deal; he again dealt himself quads and an opponent a pat hand. On the third time he returned, he again dealt himself quads and an opponent trips. On all three of these events he always had only one opponent. Of course, we all were convinced he was cheating and reported him to the management at the Rainbow Club in Gardena. Nothing came of this, and I played with this same guy for years afterwards. There was no way he was capable of cheating. I feel that dealing himself quads three times in a row after returning from a drink at a local bar was just a billion to one event that happened. You could not believe this unless you were there.
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