Thread: Bet this river?
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Old 12-02-2005, 06:06 AM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default Re: Bet this river?

If he has a five or a pocket pair he may call again on the river. But I'm not sure how much he'd call. One thing I've noticed about this guy is that he does seem to be thinking at some level... he's just really bad at it. In the hand he called with ace high, my line (to a bad player) looks pretty suspicious. I'm a total unknown, I've reraised preflop, bet weak (half pot) on the flop, and checked the turn... when I come out betting moderately big on the river, he thinks I'm full of it, and looks me up. The hand where I saw him bluff raise the river, his opponent had been betting weak throughout the hand... he picked up on the weakness and tried to make a move, but he just raised way too little and his opponent made the crying call with a marginal pair. The hand where he overbet bluffed the river was the perfect board for an overbet bluff. Unfortunately, his bet was inconsistent with his "I have nothing" bets on the flop and turn, and he got looked up by pocket fours (brilliant or stupid?).

So if I bet again on the river, he may come to the conclusion that his small pair is no good. But on the other hand, he may think that I'm bluffing this time because when I had QQ I checked the turn to him (he will probably overlook the fact that this board has multiple draws on the turn, while the QQ hand gave me a boat on the turn). Now I'm just overthinking this... it's so hard to go second- and third-level against players that are so bad...

It's also worth noting that when I reached the river, the first thing going through my mind was "I've never actually seen this guy hit a big hand, so I have no idea what he'd do if he actually has my beat." I'd have to think he would have raised me at some point, but this guy is just so bad that it's hard to say with much certainty what he has... ever.
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