[Exsubmariner]

I've been thinking a lot about this lately.

The long dreamt of spectre of the rake war has never happened. People on these boards have been talking about it for years. It's never come about. It's never even started. The competition between the sites has now taken the turn of player rewards. The multitablers have bent right over for Dikshit, so it's been proven that it's in the best interests of the online poker industry to eliminate rakeback. Even though party has the "VIP" program, it adds up to a significantly reduced rakeback plan. I look to read countless whinners talk about how that program becomes less and less over time.

Rake adjustments have happened, but only in the upward direction. Many on these boards say that the ring games have only gotten tougher. VPIP% and average pot have dropped across the board. I think the reasons for the rake increases are to compensate for this. Bonuses have become tougher to clear. The sites that have them regularly have clearance requirements that chain one to their site for substantial lengths of time.

The trend for ring seems to be tougher games, more rake, less rakeback, fewer bonuses that are tougher to clear. This is going to make it harder for whores and straight up grinders to make money. Since the sites have proven that as things dry up, they only squeeze harder, it is my feeling they are going to squeeze the ring games until they disappear all together.

This leaves the tournament side. Die hard SNG players will argue that you can actually make more money per unit time than by playing ring. I'm not really familiar with that arguement in depth, but I have heard it. Perhaps someone else who reads this could explain it coherently. Players who play tournaments pay a fixed rake. The risk of going into a tournament is always limited to the buyin, regardless of the size of the tournament. The bigger the field, the higher the potential reward and the more attractive the risk.

Something else that tournaments have going for them is that they are just like what people watch on TV. They can be used as promotional tools for sites to great effect. You can lure players to your tournments with promises of cruises, tv appearances, entries into the World Series, etc. When was the last time you saw a marketing promotion that said "come play our ring games?"

So that's my 2 bits. I can't see online poker dying. I can't concieve that it will ever go away. But, I can see the landscape changing. I would advise the grinders out there to learn how to play SNGs. Good luck.

Comments/thoughts/discussions?

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